Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 6-M.Haack punts 43 yards to LAC 31, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 46 for 15 yards (41-G.Stuard). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.35 EP
71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model