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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 26

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model