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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 34

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(7:22) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.98 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP