Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(4:23) 6-P.Harvin punts 55 yards to LV 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 29 for 13 yards (46-C.Kuntz).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.88 EP
63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model