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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to LV 24, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.14 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP