4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to PIT 24, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.30 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model