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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to LV 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.17 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 57, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model