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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 6-A.Cole punts 43 yards to PIT 25, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.44 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model