4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 58

Cleveland Browns 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to NO 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-37-D.Bell.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.31 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 58, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model