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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 5

New Orleans Saints 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.30 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 5, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model