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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 92

New Orleans Saints 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to CLE 48, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to NO 49 for 3 yards (58-T.Summers).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.21 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 92, worth -5.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.25 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 50, worth -3.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP