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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 42

Cleveland Browns 10 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to NO 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-37-D.Bell.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.62 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model