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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.68 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP