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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 10 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at NO 22 for -7 yards (96-C.Granderson).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.73 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 15, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.35 EP