Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 95

Cleveland Browns 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(3:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to CLE 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-R.Shaheed to CLE 45 for no gain (51-J.Kunaszyk).

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.18 EP
58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 95, worth -5.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model