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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 22

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.16 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model