4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 14-R.Wright punts 57 yards to NYG 9, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP