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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 14-R.Wright punts 28 yards to NYG 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.55 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model