4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 26

New York Giants 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.40 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP