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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 52

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to MIN 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -3.15 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model