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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 69

New York Giants 16 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 6-J.Gillan punt is BLOCKED by 44-J.Metellus, Center-58-C.Kreiter, recovered by NYG-20-J.Love at NYG 23. 20-J.Love to NYG 29 for 6 yards (45-T.Dye).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 69, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 27, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model