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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 7

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP