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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 80

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to PHI 23, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.19 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 37, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP