4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(9:05) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 6-D.Smith for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model