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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 21-E.Elliott right end ran ob at PHI 44 for 22 yards (22-M.Epps).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model