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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 26

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 19-B.Maher 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model