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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – Dallas Cowboys 40

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +3.67 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 19, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.58 EP