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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.27 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model