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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to SEA 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.46 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP