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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 84

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to KC 28, Center-46-C.Tinker. 19-K.Toney to KC 37 for 9 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.48 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 84, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 42, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP