Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Seattle Seahawks 3

(13:31) 5-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to SEA 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 31-D.Dallas pushed ob at SEA 45 for 6 yards (54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.68 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 79, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model