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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(3:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith scrambles right end ran ob at SEA 36 for 5 yards (22-J.Thornhill).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.29 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 27, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model