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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 42

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 5-T.Townsend punts 22 yards to SEA 20, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.66 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -1.70 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP