Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 78

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(1:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to KC 30, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by SEA-19-P.Hart.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.89 EP
60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model