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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 3-R.Succop 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model