Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

(:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.47 EP
73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 70, worth -2.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.63 EP