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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 17-R.Gage to CAR 10 for 5 yards (98-M.Haynes). Penalty on CAR-25-X.Woods, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.17 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model