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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 3-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-Y.Gross-Matos), Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda, RECOVERED by CAR-95-D.Brown at CAR 9.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.18 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model