Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 5-J.Camarda punts 42 yards to CAR 23, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts. PENALTY on CAR-42-S.Franklin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.78 EP
72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -2.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model