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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 12-T.Brady up the middle to CAR 47 for 1 yard (95-D.Brown; 53-B.Burns).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.12 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model