Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 74

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 14

(9:29) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to DET 31, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 37 for 6 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.91 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model