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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 73

Detroit Lions 38 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to CHI 27, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-35-B.Breeze.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.24 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP