4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 91

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 38

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to CHI 47, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.81 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 91, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 48, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model