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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 39

Detroit Lions 38 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(8:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 89-B.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.42 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model