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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 29

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 38

What Actually Happened

(5:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short left to 84-R.Griffin (26-I.Melifonwu).

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.16 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model