Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 84

Chicago Bears 10 – Detroit Lions 41

(1:49) 16-T.Gill punts 55 yards to DET 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 39 for 10 yards (88-T.Wesco).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.06 EP
72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 84, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model