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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 18

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 19-B.Maher 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.87 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model