4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 6 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to DAL 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 27 for 11 yards (54-A.Smith). PENALTY on DAL-1-K.Joseph, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model