4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 6 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(5:17) (Shotgun) 25-H.Haskins up the middle to DAL 24 for 2 yards (90-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model