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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 13 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model